#082 – BTC Holds Above 90K, But the Setup Is Shifting

Last week we talked about the BTC breakout, ETH's first signs of life, and a clean rotation into SOL and SUI. If you missed it, read it here: Issue #081 – BTC Breakout & Alt Rotation

This week, that breakout is stalling. Volume is thinning, indicators are cooling off, and short-term signals are starting to diverge.

Let’s break down what’s actually changing under the surface , and how this moment compares to previous bull cycles.

📉 Macro Conditions – Risk-Off or Just Resting?

• China's factory PMI fell back into contraction (49.0) , a reminder that the global economy is still fragile.

• US goods trade deficit just printed a new high ($162B), even as the USD holds steady.

• The Fed is still paused, and upcoming US data (jobs, CPI) will shape May sentiment.

• ETF flows: BTC saw another round of strong inflows ($3.2B in April), ETH flows flipped positive after persistent outflows. This institutional bid hasn’t vanished , but it has slowed.

Macro is not a headwind yet, but it’s no longer the tailwind it was three weeks ago. Keep an eye on May 1 (FOMC) and May 3 (NFP) for market-moving catalysts.

🔍 BTC Technicals – Breakout Fading

• BTC trading around $94–95K. The uptrend is intact, but price has stalled for 5 days.

• On the 12H chart:

  • Red dots: overbought

  • Red arrow: possible sell trigger

  • Bearish divergence (blue diamond) on momentum

  • Volume dropping across the last 3 candles

→ Momentum is fading. Doesn’t mean a crash , but it’s not a spot to get aggressive.

Compare this to April 2021 , BTC had similar overbought exhaustion near $60K, consolidated for a few weeks, and then made a final push. That’s possible here, too.

🟡 BTC Liquidity Zones (Binance Heatmap)

• Key liquidity above: $95.5K–96K , likely stop clusters for short positions

• Below: $92K and $90K , potential long liquidations if we drop fast

A clean breakout through $96K could squeeze to $98–100K. A breakdown under $92K might dump us into the $88–90K zone.

📊 Onchain Edge Index – 43.58 (Still Medium Risk)

• Three-day range: 43.29 → 43.58, BTC price has hovered at $94,600

• We’re in the same spot as last week , not a buy signal, but also not overheated

• Similar levels were seen during early Jan and late Feb , both periods where BTC consolidated before legging higher

If you haven’t yet played around with the dashboard tools, now’s the time:

• Visualize previous bull runs

• Compare current Edge Index risk levels to past cycles

• Use the time-range filter to isolate moments of high conviction

👉 Explore the dashboard 👉 Quick-start guide

🧠 Derivatives & Onchain Flow

• Funding flipped negative again at $94K , same setup we had before the April bounce

• No major perp leverage build-up , market is cautious, not euphoric

• Whales are still accumulating, exchange balances hitting multi-year lows

• BTC options: $100K strike is now largest May OI; market is betting on range breakout

Negative funding + whale buys = smart money buying fear. This setup mirrors the mid-April rally.

🔁 Altcoin Rotation – Mid Cycle Moves

Rotation is still active , but less impulsive. Here’s a quick scorecard to help you track positioning:

Ethereum (ETH)

• Recovery from $1’500 and slightly below $1’800

• 3 days of ETF inflows , first time in weeks

• Still lagging BTC, but structure improving

• Breakout level to watch: $1,950–2,000

Solana (SOL)

• Flag breakout confirmed last week

• Consolidation after the move from $105 to $150

• Target remains $174–175, next resistance zone

Sui (SUI)

• Strong breakout since last weeks newsletter. I got a nice trade with this one.

• Consolidating near $2.80–3.00

Hype (HYPERLIQUID)

• Didn’t cover last week, but deserves attention now. I did share some buy signals during the lows in the telegram chat a few weeks ago (link below)

• +80% bounce off the bottom, testing $20 resistance

• Breakout above = $25–27; rejection = pullback to $15 range

AI Rotation: Virtuals

• Crazy pump from the lows reaching $1.54. Buy zone is between $0.80 and $1 range.

• If BTC chops sideways, this could run next

🧭 Strategy – Think Like a Cycle Investor

• BTC trend intact, but short-term momentum is cooling off

• Altcoins rotating , but selectively. Stronger narratives (AI, SOL ecosystem) are leading

• Onchain + derivative data hint at a reset, not a top

This looks a lot like May–June 2021: early cycle exhaustion, not macro-driven panic.

If in profit: trim, trail, rebalance into strength If flat: wait for breakout >$96K or pullback to $90K before new entries

This market is still offering opportunity.

🛠 Tools I Use:

• Trade BTC without KYC → Hyperliquid , great if you're placing short and long orders on many coins. You might also get points for airdrop S2

• Best charts + alerts → TradingView , set alerts for $92K and $96K range

• AI research assistant → Perplexity , I used it to verify ETF data + macro signals

• Exchange accounts → Binance | Bybit

Until next time,

Kierin @ Onchain Edge

Access the Daily Onchain Onchain Edge Index Alert Bot Free

You can access it here: https://t.me/onchain_edge_index