#81 BTC Breakout, Alt Rotation & Where We Are in the Cycle

BTC Price: $93,223
Onchain Edge Index: 40.48 (Medium Risk)

Macro Edge — Trade War Tensions & Liquidity Repricing

Markets are digesting macro chaos and Bitcoin is leading from strength. Between U.S.–China trade blows and rising political pressure on the Fed, the narrative is shifting fast:

• Trump’s “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” positioning has turned BTC into a geopolitical hedge — this isn’t meme talk, this is treasury talk.

• Gold is at ATHs, DXY is weakening, and the bond market is pricing in stagnation risk.

• Upcoming key events:

  • PCE inflation – April 25

  • Q1 GDP – April 30

  • FOMC decision – May 7

📌 Conclusion: This isn’t just a “rate play.” BTC is now behaving more like gold an unlevered bet on fiat deterioration. The macro is supportive and misunderstood by most.

BTC is now a Top 5 global asset — larger than Silver, almost on par with Alphabet.

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📈 Bitcoin — Breakout Confirmed, Trap Zones Ahead

Price: $93,223
Trend Structure: Bullish
Next Trap Zone: $94.5K–$96.5K

• ✅ Broke and closed above $87K (ChoCH → Break of Structure (BOS) confirmed

• 🟩 $86.9K–$87.5K flipped to support

• 📊 RSI uptrending, MACD turning green

Shorts Are Still Trapped — This Is What a Perfect Squeeze Looks Like

In Issue #079, I flagged the $80K short trap and said we were looking at a textbook squeeze setup. That call has played out — but the fuel isn’t gone. It’s still burning.

• The initial liquidation wave cleared shorts up to ~$91K

• But [📸 Screenshot 3] shows there’s another layer stacked above $94.5K — these are the late shorts or those still holding onto disbelief

• OI has climbed $3B+ in the last few days — not capitulation, continuation

📌 What this tells us: The squeeze setup from 80K wasn’t a one-and-done — it was the start of a new leg. As long as funding stays in check and OI doesn’t go vertical, any push above $94K can trigger the next cascade.

Shorts bet on a macro fade. Instead, they walked right into the reaccumulation trap.

Rekt Capital points to 2021-style mid-cycle breakout symmetry

Giovanni’s models target $125K by Jan 2026
[📸 Screenshot 6–7]
📌 Below $50K? Mathematically improbable.

Liquidation clusters cleared from $91K–$93.5K. Next stop: $94.5K–$96.5K

📌 Actionable Alpha: Don't long blindly into $95K. Wait for confirmation or trap flush. Dips to $87–89K are prime rebuy zones.

🔥 Onchain Edge Index — Risk Still Moderate

📊 Edge Index: 40.48 (Medium Risk)
⬆️ Up from 35.99 two days ago. Momentum returning

The Edge Index is still not in the high-risk zone, meaning we’re in the “add and trail” phase of the cycle. You can now toggle historical views directly on the dashboard (bull vs bear markets) to see how this risk setup played out in past cycles.

📘 Learn how to use the tool to trade better, feel less, and win more:
👉 How to Use the Onchain Edge Index

📌 Edge Thought: Medium risk is where smart money is patient. This isn't exit territory.

🧬 Derivatives & On-Chain — Controlled Power

Derivatives

• BTC funding: +0.0019% (bullish, not overheated)

• ETH funding: Still negative on major exchanges → ripe for squeeze

• SUI/SEI: Mixed, showing overleveraged shorters

📌 Read: ETH is a clean contrarian long here.

On-Chain

• Long-term holders: Still accumulating

• Miner flows: Net accumulation resumed

• ETF inflows: Back after BTC reclaimed $87K

• Exchange balances: Stable → no rush to derisk

📌 Interpretation: On-chain confirms conviction. The buyers are not in a hurry to sell.

🔁 Altcoin Rotation — ETH, SOL, BNB Stepping Up

ETH ($1,797)

• +13.8% (30D), ETH/BTC bottoming

• Funding still negative → squeeze setup
  📌 Reclaim $1,850 = signal for $2K breakout.

SOL ($150.81)

• Holding above $135–$144 whale range

• No major resistance till $170
  📌 Clean, structured uptrend. Smart money favorite.

BNB ($609.18)

• Quietly coiling just below ATH

• Strong fundamentals + quarterly burns
  📌 Not fast, but reliable in macro uptrends.

🚀 High-Beta Heat: SUI & SEI

SUI ($3.00)

• Broke 108-day downtrend

• [📸 Screenshot 1] shows vertical structure
  📌 Targeting $3.25 → $4.00. Pullbacks to $2.60 = buy zones.

SEI (~$0.18)

• Trend flip confirmed (ChoCH + BOS)

• Targeting $0.21, then $0.25
  [📸 Screenshot 2] confirms structure on higher timeframes

📌 SEI is still high-risk, high-reward. Watch for breakout confirmation or fakeout wick.

I still use Bybit for some altcoin setups — especially when I’m looking for leverage and cleaner fills.
If you’re jumping on SUI or SEI trades, it’s solid.

🔍 Cycle Positioning Snapshot

📌 Cycle : We are not in blow-off top territory. We are likely mid-cycle, with controlled upside ahead. The longer we hover here, the more explosive the breakout may be.

Final Thoughts — Get Ready for Season 2 of the Bullrun

• BTC is leading from strength, not speculation

• ETH is waking up, and altcoins are showing healthy rotation

• On-chain confirms conviction.

• Edge Index confirms: risk is manageable, structure is intact.

This is not the time to fade momentum. This is the time to manage your size, trail your stops, and stay emotionally neutral just like the Onchain Edge Index was designed to help you do.

I’ll Catch you in the next one.
K.

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