At the end of June, I published an analysis in issue #061 on whether Wyckoff patterns can predict the next move.

I was quite happy that bitcoin dipped to $54k.

I’m sure many are asking themselves if the dip is over and if we will see a bullish push to $71k.

Are we going to see another dip?

Let’s find out and see where we are in the BTC Wyckoff pattern and what onchain says about the current market.

I’m surprised how well the Wyckoff re-accumulation overlay aligns with the current price action.

The dip to $53k and the subsequent V-shaped price recovery marked the end of phase C.

Now comes the big question mark. Did we enter Phase D, and will we break above the upper blue resistance line?

One thing is certain. BTC should remain above $66k and maintain that level for the pattern to remain valid.

On the 1-day timeframe, you can see there was a lot of volume between $66k and $68k.

Bitcoin is likely to consolidate there.

One thing that might suggest we see a dip back to the $58k range is the Bitcoin CME Gap in the future. These typically tend to get filled, but there’s no guarantee.

By the way the onchain edge indicator

Major liquidations will happen above 67k and below 65k.

Those can change rather fast but it gives you a picture on where people either want the price to go or definitely don’t want the price to go.

Placing sell orders above short liquidations will get you a good sell price.

In my opinion shorts will get liquidated first

The NVT Golden Cross shared in issue #062 (NVT Golden Cross: The Tool That Predicted Bitcoin’s 85% Surge in January 2024) was a very strong signal that the market had bottomed.

This is like the PE ratio for companies. It makes the most sense to buy when the PE ratio is low.

exchange depositing addresses dropped significantly. This is actually a good thing to happen.

The less people depositing on exchanges the less selling can happen.

On a longer timeframe perspective the 200w moving average is in the neutral zone, which is good.

High-risk zone hasn’t been reached this cycle yet.

It’s always good to zoom out with the bitcoin investor tool. We are currently in the middle of the range.

Start selling when we get close to the range high, as it had a good track record of marking market tops.

Sub $35k is a good time to buy.

Let me introduce you to the whale spent output profit ratio (wSOPR).

It’s a nifty chart that will show you when whales with 1k+ BTC are selling at a profit.

Now you might be wondering why that is relevant to you.

Well, since whales have a lot of Bitcoin when they start selling, interestingly enough, the price doesn’t necessarily start crashing right away. Other investors take notice, and that causes the house of cards to come crashing down.

The wSOPR chart is a much cleaner view of when whales buy and sell Bitcoin.

By watching Whale SOPR, we can get clues about what these big Bitcoin holders think about the market and what might happen next.

In the next two weeks, I will add custom daily timeframe buy and sell alerts for BTC and ETH.

The onchain edge index showed a DCA buy signal on the 6th of July 2024. Did you catch it?

I won’t go into detail too much about what each does, as that would break the scope of this newsletter. But let’s first look at the health of the alt market.

It’s pretty good.

3 day timeframe printed a bullish buy signal. Current price is slightly below the golden pocket (2 blue lines)

Nice cup and handle on maker dao. It will have a 1:24000 split this year, making it more attractive for retail.

One of my best performers. I got in at $0.21 but it has stayed very resilient during the dip

SEI

Buy signal occurred at around $0.25 it’s went up a bit but i do think it has potential. If it dips to around $0.20 i’ll buy some more.

RNDR

Multiple buy alerts happened at around $6.30. RNDR has been a really strong AI altcoin in the first part of the rally. I think it will perform well. I don’t hold any but i’m considering adding.

Before we continue to the next section please help me by letting me know what you think of this newsletter edition.

Bitcoin decay channel a new way of using the power law for a realistic price projection

Web 2.0 and web 3.0 sentiment

Global liquidity and cycle theory

Excellent US liquidity metrics

Ichimoku cloud analysis. The cloud trend never lies

Interesting read on ETH inflation in last 3months

I think it’s the best to look at the big picture with ETH. It’s still deflationary. The issue of current inflation is due to the lack of network activity and dead nft market.

I hope you enjoyed this newsletter.

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