The Bitcoin Halving 2024 Is NOT Priced In! (How high can it go?)

In this newsletter, I will uncover everything you need to know about the 2024 Bitcoin halving and its potential impact on price. 

If you've never experienced a Bitcoin halving before, or if you have but are unsure what to expect, this is the exact article you need.

I'll walk through the halving, historical price action, how high BTC can go, and how long it might take to reach the peak.

Onchain Edge 

The YouTube version of this newsletter will be available in the following days, so make sure to subscribe to the YouTube channel. Meanwhile, you can check out Missed RNDR. These 2 AI Crypto Coins Could Be Next! and the AI video ‘7 BEST AI Crypto Coins To Follow NVIDIA's growth 2024‘ already has 8k views 🤯

So let's start by understanding what the Bitcoin halving really means and why it's so important.

Imagine if your paycheck got slashed in half overnight—sounds crazy, right?

Well, that's basically what happens to Bitcoin miners every four years. It's called the halving, and their reward for finding new blocks is cut from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.12.

While it might seem nuts, this programmed-in scarcity could be the key to making Bitcoin skyrocket.

Let's take a look at what happened after each halving.

The results might just blow your mind.

BTC 2012 Halving (9’308%)

2012: The reward dropped from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Before the halving, Bitcoin was around $12 – it surged to over $1’161 a year later, representing an approximate 9’308% increase!

Time to peak: 396 days (13 months)

BTC 2016 Halving (2’861%)

The reward halved again to 12.5 BTC. Bitcoin was around $600; by late 2017, it reached $20,000, marking a significant 2861% increase.

Time to peak: 525 days (17 months)

BTC 2020 Halving (620%)

The reward went down to 6.25 BTC. Bitcoin was under $9’000 and then reached $64,000 a year later, showing a 620% increase.

Time to peak: 339 days (11 months)

Price Increase for BTC Halving 2024 Prediction (xxx%?)

Let's calculate these estimates.

Based on the analysis and using a simplistic model to account for diminishing returns, the predicted price increase for the 2024 Bitcoin halving is approximately 162%. 

This estimate reflects the trend of diminishing percentage increases after each halving.

For the time it might take to reach the next peak after the 2024 halving, the average of the previous cycles suggests around 420 days, or roughly 14 months.

Based on the info from whaleportal, the halving will take place between 20/04/2024 and 21/04/2024

Based on this info the BTC peak after this halving should be around 15/06/2025

Assuming Bitcoin's price is between $57,000 and $65,000 at the time of the next halving, a 162% price increase would lead to Bitcoin's price ranging from approximately $149,340 to $170,300 after the increase.

One really sweet thing is that this price prediction aligns with the MVRV price prediction of $150k per BTC that I shared on Twitter early last year.

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Historically, these dips have ranged from minor corrections around 10-20% to more significant drops up to 38%.

I developed a risk metric called the Onchain Edge Index that shows whether it’s a good time to buy or sell. The current value is “good time to sell,” and last week it was “very good time to sell,” at $73k.

It doesn’t mean you must sell everything when you reach those levels.

However, dollar cost averaging out of your position at the very good time to sell and “excellent time to sell” has a high probability of being very close to the top.

That will give you a lot of capital to buy back in the bear market when it’s a good time to buy.

I will turn this index into a website or tool when I have more time. I will also write a newsletter article on how to actually use this index for long-term investing.

The Dip Before the Rip

Here are the price levels I’m watching. I already shared one buy signal a few days ago on my Twitter. Make sure you follow me there.

$59-$60k is the most important level to watch atm.

Altcoins: Riding the Bitcoin Wave

The Bitcoin halving isn't just about Bitcoin. The entire market often benefits when crypto is spotlighted, and altcoins with solid potential can see major gains.

Remember the last halving in 2020? Look at how major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Fantom (FTM), and Binance Coin (BNB) surged alongside Bitcoin.

Investing in new coins like SUI, SEI, and TIA that have yet to reach their ATH can be highly profitable. Additionally, blockchain projects such as Stacks (STX) or ORDI that are closely linked to Bitcoin's ecosystem can be promising.

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