The bear market label just changed for the first time in 28 days. BTC is technically net long again.
But only by one wallet.
What the regime flip actually shows
For 28 days the market has been in RISK OFF mode. That means the system sees more sellers than buyers across the board.
Today it shifted to CHOPPY. Sentiment went from 0 to 38. Something moved. But not much.
BTC is now net long for the first time in 13 days. 566 wallets long. 565 short. These are the best traders on Hyperliquid going head to head.
What's happening | Number | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
BTC barely flipped long | 566L vs 565S | One wallet is the margin. Not conviction. |
Best traders are leaving | 116 elite longs | Down from 206. They are not buying the flip. |
New longs are underwater | Entry $75,325 | Price is $73,872. They need a 2% bounce to break even. |
Longs are getting paid to wait | -0.0008% / 8h | Small funding fee every 8 hours. Patience has a price tag. |
ETH shorts dominate | 61% for 13 days | Majority short and making money at $2,362 entry. |
Market is not rotating | 43 coins net long | Was 41. That is noise not a trend change. |
Here is why this matters. Two weeks ago 206 of the best tracked wallets were long BTC. Today 116. They are quietly walking away while the crowd celebrates a label change.
If they are right, BTC does not reclaim $75,325 and the new longs sitting underwater there are stuck.
The wall rebuilt
Last post we said $74,442 was the level to watch. The price where all the shorts break even.
BTC broke above it yesterday. New buyers jumped in at $75,325. Then price dropped back below. Those new longs are now underwater.
The wall rebuilt. Higher and weaker than before.
Why ETH is the most interesting position right now
ETH tells a different story.
61% of wallets have been short for 13 straight days. The shorts are making money. Sounds bearish.
But when this exact setup has appeared in the past, ETH went up within 7 days 81% of the time. 13 out of 16 times. The crowd is positioned one way. History says the other.
The case for buying
The strongest case for buying right now: when BTC longs have been in this exact position before, price went up within 7 days 75% of the time. At 14 days it went up every single time.
The longs are losing money today but the market is paying them a small fee every 8 hours just for holding. They are getting paid to be patient. That is a real edge. It is just not confirmed yet.
What the strategies are showing
One thing from the strategy side. We run paper trading strategies that test different approaches using this data.
The one that bets against whatever the crowd is doing has a 90.9% win rate across 15 trades. The one that copies the top 5 ranked wallets directly sits at 46.4% across 63 trades.
Fading the crowd beats following the best individuals. I just started running a live trading bot based on this and will share results as they come in.
The site is still in beta and improving regularly. If something breaks or you have feedback, reach out. See why the biggest wallets have the worst win rate for how the ranking actually works.
If you are long BTC: watch for elite longs rebuilding past 150 and price closing above $75,325 with coins net long pushing past 50. Until all three happen you are holding an unconfirmed setup. A real one, but not confirmed.
If you are waiting or thinking of shorting: the regime just softened, the wall rebuilt weaker, and ETH's short setup has been wrong 81% of the time. Shorting here is betting against a tide that might be turning. The bear case needs the North Star to stay full bearish and coins net long to stay below 45 through the week. If both hold, the CHOPPY label was a head fake.
