#004 – The Numbers Don’t Lie (Or Do They?)

Morning Espresso with BTC & ETH: The Numbers Don’t Lie (Or Do They?)

Yo, rise and shine! Pour that coffee and let's caffeinate our crypto brains. Here's what's brewing:

Today's edition promises to be both enlightening and actionable. Here's a quick rundown of what to expect:

• Market Spotlight: A deep dive into BTC & ETH's latest price dynamics.

• Twitter Takes: The latest on Grayscale's triumph and Twitter's foray into crypto payments.

• Project Watch: Insights on Aerodrome, Llamaswap's integration on Base, Lybra's latest offerings, and the debut of Prisma Finance on the Ethereum mainnet.

• Wallet Watch: Get the low-down on which altcoins the big players are buying and dumping.

• Community Corner: Curated reads that blend personal anecdotes with crypto insights.

Enjoy!

2. Market Spotlight: BTC & ETH

Price Highlights: Key support $25k and resistance $28k.

Last week caught many traders off-guard with the unexpected liquidation, wick up to $28k. Despite the surprise, I had pointed out a potential profit-taking zone in the previous week's chart. We didn't entirely hit that mark, but there was no reason for FOMO. The majority of our activity remained in the 'Don't trade range'. We're approaching an attractive buying zone with the current dip below $26k. I've been noting this accumulation range 1 for months now.

Should BTC fall into accumulation range 1 ($24.4k to $25.5k), it offers a prime opportunity not just for BTC, but also for alts that have depreciated recently. Yet, exercise prudence with alts; their low liquidity means they can experience significant losses—sometimes double digits—even with a mere 1% BTC drop.

Inspect the chart; there's a blue buy diamond. While it doesn't signify the absolute bottom, we're nearer to this cycle's bottom than its top.

We still have 261 days to the next halving, as seen on whaleportal.

Let’s hope the price pumps before the halvening

It is worth noting that ETH is currently hovering just above the $1600 support level after briefly rising to $1780. I have reason to believe that we may reach the first golden pocket, as whales have been actively trying to liquidate current short traders and subsequently driving the price even higher.

There were two blue diamonds preceding the year's start rally; though past patterns aren't guaranteed to recur, let's observe the upcoming price trajectory.

The next major liquidations will happen at $1488 for ETH.

3. Twitter Takes

Grayscale vs. SEC: Spoiler - Grayscale had the last laugh!

4. Project Watch

Aerodrome

Aerodrome: The latest cool kid on the Base block. Imagine swapping tokens with zero fuss, earning rewards, and having a say because you own a funky NFT. Yup, that's Aerodrome for you.

Base recorded $100M inflows yesterday via its native bridge—its highest since inception. It is likely driven by participants in aerodromefi, which boasts a $200M TVL.

Here’s a TLDR on what Aerodrome is:

Aerodrome Finance, anchored in Base, is a cutting-edge trading and liquidity platform. Thanks to its user-friendly interface, traders enjoy minimal fees and smooth token swaps. Liquidity providers can deposit tokens and earn rewards, and with the unique NFT-based governance model, users get a voice in decisions. In short, Aerodrome offers crypto users an efficient, rewarding, and participatory trading experience.

Llamaswap live on Base

Llamas are cool. Llamaswap? Cooler. Want the best rates without moving a muscle? Hop on.

Llamaswap is probably my go-to platform for swapping tokens fast and reliably. You can easily switch between chains, and it finds the best exchange rate among various amms. I highly recommend it. Now, it’s also available on Base.

Lybra v2 (LBR)

Remember when stablecoins were boring? Lybra just spiced things up with its 8.56% APY. Hold, swap, earn. As simple as that.

Lybra is the pioneering stablecoin with an 8.56% APY. V2 brings innovative tokens, cross-chain functions, enhanced DeFi for eUSD/peUSD, and varied collaterals. With expected growth in TVL and eUSD use, you can earn via depositing ETH, providing LP, holding LBR, or becoming a Liquidator.

Prisma Finance is live

Prisma Finance has launched a new platform on the Ethereum mainnet that allows users to make the most of their liquid staking tokens (LSTs), including popular assets like wstETH and rETH. In the initial phase, early adopters can enjoy a 0% interest rate. However, the most exciting feature is the upcoming PRISMA token, which gives users governance rights and boosts their token rewards. Prisma Finance prioritizes security, ensuring that third-party audits are conducted regularly. In summary, Prisma Finance is a safe and lucrative choice for those looking to maximize their LST returns.

5. Wallet Watch: Who's Buying What?

Smart money on chainedge has been buying a lot of GMBL, RLB, HarryPotter…, Grail and Joe Token.

There are quite a few good projects in the list above. I’m looking for some good entries on RLB and Grail. I’m still holding LBR and might buy some more should it dip.

Here are the alts being dumped by smart money:

If you're eyeing MKR or PEPE, you might want to take a pause; they’re colder than my ex’s heart.

6. Community Corner

Here are a few exciting reads that I thought you might find interesting. The first read is because I’m also a digital nomad since 2021.

A good read about understanding if it’s a good thing to differentiate between real users and degens. Cielo has probably one of the best wallet-tracking tools in the space. If there’s enough interest, I’ll write more about Cielo in one of the next newsletters.

7. Conclusion & Looking Ahead

Thanks for hanging out! With BTC and ETH showing potential buy signals and projects like Prisma Finance redefining platforms, the crypto space is as exciting as ever. As we always say, informed decisions are the best decisions. Try not to fomo too much and don’t sell the bottom. Share this Newsletter with friends.

P.S.: Don't be a Michael Burry. Unless you're the Big Short kind. Then, by all means, carry on.