#005 – Is A Black Swan Event Around the Corner?

#005 – Black Swan or Just Another Thursday in Crypto?

GM, Fam! Dive into today's brew of crypto insights and get that edge. Let's get to the juicy bits, shall we? 🍵

There’s a lot to unpack and a few actionable items.

Enjoy!
Onchain Edge

• US Dollar Index: Approaching a pivotal resistance with implications for crypto.

• Global Crypto Market Cap: Nearing the June 15th support; potential concerns for hodlers.

• Binance: Overview of challenges and implications for the crypto space.

• EigenLayer Airdrop: Analysis of potential value based on restaked points.

• Wallet Watch: Dive into Dexscreener and spot those golden wallets. 💰

• ChatGPT Trading Bot: A no-code trading strategy tutorial by Axel Bitblaze.

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Market Spotlight

Current Vibe: Neutral (medium risk, but when was crypto ever low risk, right?)

Market Highlights

US Dollar Index & Crypto Implications: The US dollar index is nearing a significant resistance at $107.91. Ideally, it won't breach this level. A breakthrough could signal a continued downtrend for the crypto market.

Global Crypto Market Cap Concerns: The global market cap is teetering close to its June 15th support of $993bn. A dip below this could spell trouble for all hodlers, particularly those in low-liquidity altcoins.

Altcoin Market: The altcoin market is showing signs of distress. A drop below $409bn would enter a concerning dead zone. Personally, several altcoins in my portfolio have been bleeding seriously.

Bitcoin has been relatively stagnant, but a sharp move on the 5th liquidated both long and short traders. The silver lining? A wick dipped into the accumulation range, offering a potential buy opportunity for those with preemptive limit orders. It is important to be cautious when attempting to catch falling knives.

UTXOs in Loss - A Warning Sign? Drawing parallels between today's Bitcoin indicators and the 2020 slump, there's speculation about an impending significant market drop.

BTC's 2023 Volatility: This year is on track to be one of Bitcoin's least volatile in the past decade. It remains to be seen if the final months will disrupt this trend.

Uniswap Liquidity Providers' Insight: Astute Uniswap liquidity providers can potentially forecast bullish or bearish shifts hours before they materialize.

3. Twitter Takes

Binance's Rocky Road: A review of Binance's challenges since December, highlighting its significant role in the cryptocurrency industry.

Even though it might be fud, I still wouldn’t keep a lot of funds on Binance.

The bottom is close when there’s so much fear in the market. Don’t sell the bottom.

EigenLayer Airdrop Analysis: Exploring the potential airdrop value based on restaked points, with assumptions and valuations ranging from $500M to $9B.

ChatGPT Trading Bot Tutorial: Axel Bitblaze shows how to build a trading strategy using ChatGPT4, integrating moving averages and the stochastic RSI, all without coding. I’ll definitely be trying it out. It’s probably not profitable, but still fun.

Important News

Binance encourages users to convert their $BUSD to other stablecoins. If Binance faces challenges, we might see a significant dip in the crypto space.

Arkham identified over 500 wallets tied to the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE). This insight provides a deeper understanding of the major players in the ETHE space.

Spotlight: Arbitrum's recent proposal to distribute up to 75m ARB ($67m) as part of a short-term incentive program.

Why It Matters: The distribution of such a significant amount could influence the ARB token's price and the overall adoption of the Arbitrum platform.

Wallet Watch: How to find Profitable wallets

Actionable item

Guide to Using Dexscreener for Finding Profitable Wallets

Start with a Coin Rally: Begin by identifying a coin that has recently experienced a significant rally. For instance, consider the "shia" coin.

Set Your Filters: Adjust the filter settings to display transactions with a minimum value of $5,000. This will primarily show you the activity of 'whales' and 'dolphins' in the trade section.

Navigate to the Maker Column: You'll find a list of these prominent traders here. Hover over the maker icon, represented by either a whale or dolphin emoji, to view a detailed breakdown of each wallet's transactions. This includes the amount they've bought, sold, and their respective profit or loss.

Access Detailed Transaction History: By clicking on the funnel icon adjacent to the maker label, you can delve deeper into the transaction history of a particular wallet. This feature showcases specific instances of buys and sells for that wallet.

Analyze and Learn: The final step involves studying coins with exponential growth. Your goal is to identify traders who have been successfully trading them.

You can add the profitable wallets to Cielo. Cielo is one of the best if not the best wallet tracker. https://cielo.finance/

Here’s a pretty good wallet with a high pnl as well as win rate:

Chinaisbuying did a 6x on BLUI today 👌 ($17k profit)

Here’s the wallet: https://debank.com/profile/0x7328ab6e634529dcb6e568a9a996654dc26f522e/history

6. Community Corner

Reader's Showcase: Check out this great thread on altcoin picks, including rlb, which has already seen a significant rally.

Conclusion & Looking Ahead

Crypto's wild, and today's no exception. From the US Dollar Index's dance to Binance's drama, there's never a dull moment. The current market is hard to trade and is very PVP. Stay safe! Stay sharp, stay safe, and may your trades always be in the green! 🚀

p.s don’t get fished. This whale lost $24m