#059 - Are whales secretly buying bitcoin? (How we can track if they are)

How do we know when Bitcoin whales are secretly buying Bitcoin?

Last week, Bitcoin Whales bought $1.4B worth of Bitcoin and moved it off of exchanges.

But often they have smart algorithms that allow them to buy without moving the price.

It’s frustrating, not really knowing what’s actually happening deep below the surface.

It’s no secret that Bitcoin whales, those who hold large amounts of BTC, can significantly influence the market.

But how do you know when they're buying?

It’s not as straightforward as just looking at the top holdings of the largest BTC holders.

Imagine having the power to see these moves, to know when whales are secretly accumulating Bitcoin.

This newsletter will show you exactly how to stay informed and get ahead of 99% of retail investors who have no clue about this.

My name is Kierin (Onchain Edge) I write weekly, data-driven insights for crypto investors. I will try my best to make sure you don’t f*ck this rally up. Join 800+ savvy investors.

BTC Onchain Edge Index (current value: 38 Medium Risk)

Onchain Metrics = Whale Sonar

Think of on-chain metrics as your crypto sonar.

Just like how a whale uses sonar to navigate and find food in the ocean, you can use on-chain metrics to detect the movements and behaviors of Bitcoin whales.

Here’s how each metric works as a ping:

How to See When Long-term $BTC Holders Are Buying

Even though the chart below doesn’t specifically examine Bitcoin whales, we can still gain a huge insight into their activity by examining the activity of long-term holders.

So, if you’ve ever wondered how Bitcoin holders react to price changes.

The LTH/STH chart is split into two groups: Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH).

Let’s break it down. (Chart from: chainexposed)

Low Prices (Left Side): Lots of blue bars. Long-Term Holders aren’t making many moves. (It makes sense.)

A few are selling (blue crosses). They’re in it for the long haul.

Medium Prices (Middle): A colorful mix. Both LTHs and STHs are buying and selling. The market is heating up.

High Prices (Right Side): Red bars dominate. Short-Term Holders are super active, buying and selling like there’s no tomorrow. They’re probably taking profits or buying dips.

You can change the chart's timeframe to see more recent movements. The timeframe ranges from 1 Day to 30 days.

How would I use this heatmap?

I would look to see at which price Long-term holders are accumulating to set some limit buy orders.

I know $40k might seem low, but during a crash, you will never know how low the price can go. I would also look at which levels the long-term holders are taking profit.

Whale Accumulation Heatmaps

This chart shows if whales are adding to their stash (accumulation) or giving it away (distribution).

The value of the warm bubbles means whales are collecting more Bitcoin. A cold color means they’re spreading it out or selling it.

Exchange Outflows (Volume and Counts)

These metrics show how much Bitcoin is being moved from exchanges to whale wallets.

If these numbers are high, it means whales are storing more Bitcoin off exchanges, which is usually a good sign.

By watching these metrics, you can get a clear picture of what the whales are doing. If they’re buying, it might be a good time to buy too.

Here’s an example of such an alert I shared on twitter

This is a good alert to the user in combination with the heatmap I just shared above and the onchain edge BTC risk index.

How to track whale activities

Knowing when Bitcoin whales are buying can give you an edge.

Whale tracking services are the easiest way to get started.

• Tools: Whale Alert, ArbitrageScanner, Cryptoquant

• Why use them? These tools monitor large Bitcoin transactions and alert you to whale activity.

  • Set up alerts for specific wallet addresses and transaction values, such as transactions over 1,000 BTC.

Exchange Outflows (Volume and Counts)

These metrics show how much Bitcoin is being moved from exchanges to whale wallets.

If these numbers are high, it means whales are storing more Bitcoin off exchanges, which is usually a good sign.

By watching these metrics, you can get a clear picture of what the whales are doing.

Here’s an example of such an alert I shared on Twitter

In cryptoquant, it’s really easy to set up telegram alerts for various metrics, including large $BTC outflows from exchanges.

With these alerts, you’ll know when whales are moving their Bitcoin, helping you make more informed decisions.

Stay Informed, Stay Ahead

Remember, the early bird catches the worm. Or in this case, the early watcher catches the whale!

Stay sharp,

Onchain Edge