#80 From Tariff Panic to Recovery: Bitcoin's Resilience Test

What's really happening in crypto right now? Is this just another consolidation, or the calm before the next big move? Let's break it down with the latest on-chain signals, macro events, and what you should watch next.

Onchain Edge Index: 36.7 (up from 34.23 last week)

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Market Recap: Volatility, Macro Shocks, and a New Range

The past week in crypto has been a wild ride. After a sharp drop to $74,500 on tariff panic we mentioned last week and then hitting the short liquidation zone I highlighted in last week's edition), Bitcoin is now at $84,000 as the US paused new tariffs for most countries.

Spot flows show BTC saw net outflows over 7 days, but the 15- and 30-day trends are still negative—reminding us that nerves are still raw.

[CHART: Bitcoin Price with Liquidation Levels] Chart link

I wouldn’t be suprised if longs get flushed at $82k before we go back up.

Across the majors, ETH continues to lag, while SOL is showing signs of life with strong inflows and price recovery. Altcoin sentiment is mixed, but the market's focus is squarely on Bitcoin's next move.

On-Chain Edge: Who's Buying, Who's Selling, and Why It Matters

Let's dig into the data that really counts.

[CHART: Long-Term Holder Supply] Chart link: https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-holder-supply/

• Long-Term Holder Supply: 14.7 million BTC and climbing. The uptrend is subtle but real—conviction remains strong among the "smart money."

• Whale SOPR: 1.06, down from 1.12 last week. Whales are still taking profits, but not dumping.

• Whale Transaction Count: No major spikes—large holders are active, but not in panic mode.

• Percent Addresses in Profit: Still high, suggesting most holders are sitting on gains.

• Exchange Balances: Major exchanges like Coinbase Pro (-8,707 BTC last week) and Bitfinex are seeing continued BTC outflows. This is classic accumulation behavior.

• Supply Age Shift: Dormant coins aren't moving—another sign of conviction.

• SOPR: Near or just above 1, up from 0.97 last week, signaling no mass capitulation.

What does it mean?

We're seeing a market where long-term holders are quietly adding, whales are booking some profits but not running for the exits, and exchange outflows hint at continued accumulation. The "Onchain Edge Index" currently reads "neutral" at 36.71, but the balance of evidence leans bullish—if, and only if, macro headwinds don't return.

I'm trading market news on Hyperliquid, the best decentralized CEX with no KYC.

Macro Moves: The Big Picture

Inflation in the US cooled to 2.5% (March CPI), fueling hopes for Fed rate cuts later this year. But the Fed remains cautious, and global trade tensions are far from resolved. The ECB and Bank of Canada are both expected to cut rates soon, while the Fed is likely to wait for more data.

This is consistent with what I mentioned last week about the stagflation scenario brewing. If inflation continues cooling while growth slows (Atlanta Fed's -2.8% GDP projection), we're setting up for a classic "rate cut cycle" that historically benefits Bitcoin.

I use Perplexity Pro to analyze these macroeconomic trends across multiple sources - it saves me hours of research time.

Key events to watch:

• US retail sales, UK CPI, ECB/BoC/FOMC meetings

• Ongoing US-China tariff headlines

• Bitcoin ETF decision timeline (not expected soon, but any news = volatility)

Altcoins Dominance: Close to Bear Market lows

[CHART: Others.d/Bitcoin.d] Chart link:

• ETH: Embarassingly poor performance during this bullrun.

• SOL: After strong correction Showing strength, with positive spot flows and a robust bounce.

• BNB & XRP: Mixed, but no clear trend.

When I buy alts for spot i mostly do it on Binance which provides the best liquidity for major alts during consolidation phases.

Charts That Tell the Story

Want to see the conviction vs. risk-off battle in real time? These are the exact charts I'm watching:

[CHART: SOPR Comparison] Chart link: https://kiklex.co.uk/SOPR.html

• Whale SOPR (whale profit-taking)

• Whale Transaction Count (whale activity)

• Coinglass Exchange Balance (accumulation/distribution)

• Percent Addresses in Profit (holder sentiment)

• Supply Age Shift 30d (dormancy/conviction)

• SOPR (profit/loss realization)

When I chart I use TradingView for a comprehensive view that most traders miss.

Bottom Line: Is This the Calm Before the Next Wave?

The market is at a crossroads. On-chain data points to accumulation and strong hands, but macro uncertainty and defensive derivatives positioning keep traders cautious. A breakout above $90k could ignite the next rally, while a breakdown below $78k would put the bulls on the defensive.

Last week I highlighted the critical liquidation zones at $75-77.5k and $80-83k - we've now tested both, confirming their importance. The bounce from the lower band suggests buyers are defending this range.

When I need to execute trades in this environment, I trust Kraken for their security and execution quality - crucial during these volatile periods.

Stay tuned, watch the charts, and keep your edge.

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