#057 - 3 alerts that warn you before whales start selling

3 alerts that warn you before whales start selling

Ever wish you had a crystal ball to predict when whales are about to crash the price?

While I can't promise magic, I can offer the next best thing: 3 money flow alerts that will give you a warning when whales are about to sell their coins.

The goal? To protect your investments and build financial wealth throughout market cycles.

I’ve used this strategy successfully numerous times during cycle highs, saving my portfolio from massive losses.

These alerts can be used in combination with the onchain edge index to reduce risks and protect your portfolio.

Ready to dive in?

Let’s get started!

My name is Kierin (Onchain Edge) I write weekly, data-driven insights for crypto investors. Empowering long-term financial growth with onchain and technical analysis.

BTC Onchain Edge Index (current value: 41.32 Medium Risk)

🌟 fun fact: Did you know? Bitcoin’s first major crash in 2011 saw its price drop from $32 to $2 in just a few days.

Alert 1: Smart Money Token Flow Alerts

First up, let's talk about Smart Money Token Flow Alerts.

"Smart money" refers to the big players in the market—whales, institutions, and experienced investors.

They have a massive unfair advantage in the market. That might be insider information, trading algorithms, and superfast notification systems that keep them in the loop so that they are the first to know when there’s an opportunity.

That’s who you are up against.

It’s like a chess game, and you are only playing against Magnus Carlsen.

However, even if they win, it doesn’t necessarily mean you have to lose. There’s enough dumb money in the market.

That’s why tracking their movements can give you a big advantage.

When large amounts of tokens flow in or out of smart money wallets, it can signal major market moves.

Significant outflows from these wallets are often a sign that big players are preparing to sell.

To a certain extent, you can protect yourself by setting alerts for the tokens you hold in your portfolio.

Here are a few extremely powerful onchain tools you can use to monitor token flows:

1. Nansen: This platform is extremely useful for tracking onchain buys & sells as well as what type of smart contracts smart money is aping into. They have smart alerts for specific on-chain activities, including large token flows from smart money wallets.

2. Arkham Intelligence: Useful for tracking specific crypto whales, Arkham Intelligence provides detailed on-chain portfolio data, profit and loss history, and all transactions made by tagged wallets.

3. DeBank: A user-friendly platform for tracking DeFi portfolios and whale activities, DeBank allows you to monitor the on-chain portfolios of addresses known for profitable trades.

4. Chainedge: This is probably one of the best onchain smart money trackers that allows you to see what profitable wallets are buying, selling, and holding.

Smart Money Token Flow Alerts are like your early warning system for your altcoin holdings.

Exchange Inflow Alerts (All coins)

Exchange inflow alerts are incredibly useful.

These alerts are super important because large token inflows into major exchanges often precede sell-offs.

Especially when other onchain metrics show that the market is overheated.

When you see a significant spike in tokens being sent to exchanges, there’s a good chance that these tokens will be sold.

You don’t want to be like brian.

To set up Exchange Inflow Alerts, you can use several reliable tools:

1. CryptoQuant: My favourite platform to track exchange inflows and outflows. You can set alerts for significant inflow events, which will notify you when large amounts of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies are transferred to exchanges.

2. Glassnode: Glassnode provides comprehensive on-chain data, including metrics for tracking exchange activity. Their user-friendly interface and advanced alert system make it easy to stay informed about large inflows to exchanges.

3. Nansen: Known for its in-depth on-chain analytics, Nansen also allows users to set up alerts for various on-chain activities, including exchange inflows. This platform is highly valued by professional traders for its detailed insights and real-time data updates.

Pro tip: If the BTC volatility is low and there are large BTC outflows from exchanges, that’s because whales have been buying and sending.

On Cryptoquant my exchange inflow alert looks like this:

BTC Mean Inflow Alert

With cryptoquant, you can monitor the mean (similar to the average) amount of BTC flowing into exchanges on a block level.

That means we can get an alert when the BTC mean goes above a certain level.

Monitoring this can be highly profitable for traders and investors.

When multiple exchange inflows with a mean above 15 triggers, a correction within the next few hours is highly probable.

You can profit from this trade by 1. First, you can hedge your position with put options. 2. You can open a low-leverage short position.

On Cryptoquant you can setup this alert like this:

Or you can just follow me on Twitter. The caveat with this alert is that it only works well in combination with other long-term risk metrics like MVRV and Puell Multiple.

Conclusion

To wrap it up, these 3 easy-to-use onchain alerts can significantly improve your ability to predict when whales and smart money are going to sell.

Like with all strategies. It’s best to combine them to get the best result.