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- #084 The Market Is Leaning Bullish — But This Level Changes Everything
#084 The Market Is Leaning Bullish — But This Level Changes Everything
Data-driven signals. Actionable moves. Edge you can use.
Kierin M
May 07, 2025
1. Big Picture Summary (TL;DR)
Macro: U.S. jobs came in strong (+177K vs. +130K expected); rate cuts now priced in for UK & possibly Fed. DXY dropped from 106.1 to 105.3 in 5 days easing dollar strength.
Bitcoin: +11.2% in last 10 days; stalling just below $100K resistance after tagging $102K.
On-Chain & Positioning: Whale accumulation + selective shorting; Onchain Edge Index up to 43.6 (Medium Risk).
Altcoins: BTC Dominance rose to 65.1% (+2.3% W/W); ETH/BTC at 0.0190 5-year low.
Key Dates: Fed Decision May 8 @ 18:00 UTC. May 22 = ETF decisions (incl. XRP).
2. Signals That Matter (What Smart Traders Are Watching)
Signal | Current Value | Strategic Implication |
|---|---|---|
Fed Decision | 85% odds of pause, 15% odds of cut (CME FedWatch) | Dovish tone = crypto tailwind; hawkish = BTC likely rejected at $100K |
BTC Resistance Zone | $100K–$104K = options OI cluster + whale shorts | Breakout could trigger short squeeze → target $110K+ |
BTC Dominance | 65.1% (+2.3% W/W) | Altcoin season unlikely until this stalls or reverses |
SUI Weekly Performance | +25.6% W/W, $3.00 price | Early adoption story + USDC integration = narrative + usage driven strength |
ETH/BTC Ratio | 0.0190 (5Y low) | ETH may mean revert if BTC cools; key to watch for alt rotation |
Options Skew & OI | Calls > puts; $100K June strike = 38K+ OI | Gamma squeeze risk if BTC clears resistance |
Implied Volatility | 1M IV = 78% (up from 65% W/W) | Market expects big moves Fed + ETF = high-impact catalysts |
3. Market Context & Key Insights
Macro: Liquidity Winds Are Shifting
Jobs: NFP beat +177K vs. +130K expected. Soft landing thesis alive.
BoE: Expected to cut 25bps to 4.25% tomorrow (May 8).
Dollar: DXY dropped 0.8% in a week → easing pressure on risk assets.
S&P 500: +9-day win streak first since 2004. Big Tech leading risk-on rotation.
Risk appetite is back. Crypto could follow, if the Fed doesn’t throw cold water tomorrow.
Bitcoin: Bullish Structure, Momentum Fading
Price Action: $102K high, rejected; now ~$97K. +11.2% in 10 days.
Support Zones: $94K (trend mid-band), then $92K. Below that = $84–85K.
Indicators: Daily MACD bearish cross; RSI 68 (cooling from 74).
Moving Averages: Still above 50D/200D → medium-term trend intact.
Volume: Spot vol +18% W/W; weekend tapering offset by Fed anticipation.
BTC is coiled. A breakout above $100K could spark forced buying (short squeeze & options hedging). A fail = likely dip to $92K.
On-Chain & Positioning
Onchain Edge Index: 43.6 (Medium Risk) → cautious but not euphoric.
Exchange Flows: Inflows +12% on May 7. Dormant whales (3,422 BTC) moved for first time since 2013.
ETF Flows: $1.2B inflows last week, mostly to iShares Bitcoin Trust.
Whale Count: Addresses with ≥1K BTC rose 4.7% W/W (Glassnode).
Futures Funding: +0.012% avg → slightly bullish, not frothy.
Futures Basis: 6.5% annualized → well below overheated levels (>15%).
Open Interest: Near yearly high → watch for OI flush if Fed disappoints.
4. Trade Setups & Strategy Plays
Setup | Thesis | Trigger/Execution | Reward/Risk |
BTC Breakout ($100K+) | OI cluster + calls + whale shorts = gamma/short squeeze | Break + close above $100K + vol → target $110K+ | Reward: 10% / Risk: 3% |
ETH/BTC Mean Revert | ETH extremely oversold vs BTC (0.0190 = 5Y low) | ETH/BTC reclaims 0.020 on rising OI | Reward: 15% / Risk: 4% |
Alt Rotation (SOL, SUI) | BTC.D pause + ETH strength → capital rotates to L1s | BTC.D flattens + ETH breakout | Reward: 20% / Risk: 5% |
SUI Pullback Entry | High narrative strength + adoption = strong dips buyable | Entry $2.70–$2.90 if BTC > $95K | Reward: 25% / Risk: 6% |
Gamma Squeeze Hedge Short | BTC fails $100K + Fed hawkish → quick down move | Rejection at $100K + high IV = short w/ put buys | Reward: 7% / Risk: 2% |
5. Week-over-Week Strategic Shift
Category | Last Week | This Week | Implication |
Macro | Rate pause possible | Rate pause likely | Liquidity tailwinds strengthening |
BTC Technicals | Strong momentum | Momentum fading at resistance | Needs catalyst to break higher |
Whale Behavior | Accumulating mostly | Mixed: accumulation + 40x short @ $102K | Volatility ahead bulls & bears active |
BTC Dominance | 62.8% | 65.1% | Alts lagging not time for broad rotation yet |
ETH Relative | Holding 0.020 support | Broke down to 0.019 | ETH must reclaim ratio before alts gain traction |
Volatility | IV ~65% | IV ~78% | Market bracing for big post-Fed move |
Final Strategic View
Positioning: Lean bullish, stay nimble.
Macro: Constructive
BTC Structure: Healthy but near-term fragile
On-chain: Slightly elevated risk, but not dangerous
Altcoin Outlook: Narrow rotation (SUI, AI), broad altseason not here yet
Key Scenarios:
If... | Then... |
BTC clears $100K + dovish Fed | Breakout → $110K likely + altcoin catch-up |
BTC rejected + hawkish Fed | Pullback to $92K or lower |
BTC holds $97K, Fed neutral | Chop/range before ETF decisions May 22 |
BTC dominance stalls | Alts (esp ETH, SOL, SUI) rotate higher |
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