#078 $1M Bitcoin Put: What Smart Money Sees

Bitcoin continues to move sideways, now at $83,476 (-1.2% in 24h, -3.5% in 7d). Not much has changed since last week when we looked at the $84K range. This sideways chop is exactly when most traders make mistakes.

Onchain Edge Index now at 35.88 (down slightly from 36.49 last week)

Let's look at what's new since our last update.

$1M put option reveals smart money hedging

The biggest news this week: A large institutional trader just placed a $1M premium put option betting on a drop to $75K by June. This is one of the largest single options positions in recent months.

Options put/call ratio sits at 0.85, showing slight bias toward protective puts. This doesn't mean smart money expects a crash - just that they're hedging risk while maintaining core positions.

I track these institutional moves using TradingView's advanced options data. Their tools help spot these large trades before they impact the market.

Liquidation clusters still define the range

The liquidation map remains nearly unchanged with major clusters at:

• $80,000-$82,000: $450M in long liquidations (if price drops)

• $87,000-$89,000: $400M in short liquidations (if price rises)

The current price ($83,476) sits slightly below last week's level but firmly between these liquidation zones, creating potential "magnet" effects in both directions.

You can track liquidation levels in real-time on Bybit's liquidation dashboard. I find their data particularly reliable for spotting these liquidity clusters.

Fear and Greed has cooled further

The Fear and Greed Index now at 52 (Neutral), down from last week's "Greed" zone (55-65) and way down from 75 (Extreme Greed) a month ago.

This cooling sentiment is exactly what we want to see for a sustainable uptrend. Markets never move straight up, and sentiment resets build the foundation for the next leg higher.

Exchange flows signal continued accumulation

Strong net outflows continue across all major exchanges:

• 24-hour net outflow: $1.27B

• 7-day cumulative outflow: $5.11B

• 30-day cumulative outflow: $1.93B

This consistent pattern across Binance (-$510M), Coinbase (-$320M), Kraken (-$180M) and other major exchanges suggests coins are moving to long-term storage - typically a bullish signal.

Trading volume distribution

Exchange volume distribution for the $42.8B in 24-hour volume:

• Binance: $12.4B (29%)

• OKX: $6.8B (16%)

• Bybit: $5.1B (12%)

• Coinbase: $4.3B (10%)

• Others: $14.2B (33%)

New key events to monitor

Several new events could impact Bitcoin in the coming weeks:

1. Federal Reserve meeting (April 8-9) - watch for any rate policy signals

2. Crypto company earnings mid-April (MicroStrategy, Block, Coinbase)

3. EU regulatory framework implementation (April 30)

Trump's comments about a potential "strategic reserve" policy for Bitcoin have also created market uncertainty. Any formal adoption would dramatically change Bitcoin's regulatory status.

I research these policy implications using Perplexity Pro, which helps me quickly analyze complex regulatory developments across multiple sources.

Post-halving cycle analysis

Historical post-halving performance:

• 2012 Halving: +9,000% over 12 months

• 2016 Halving: +2,800% over 18 months

• 2020 Halving: +780% over 18 months

• 2024 Halving: Current cycle

Each cycle shows diminishing percentage returns but increasing dollar gains. Based on this pattern, we could expect 200-400% returns over the next 12-18 months, suggesting targets in the $150,000-$180,000 range by late 2026.

Supply dynamics strengthening

Some key supply metrics worth noting:

• Current annual issuance: 0.84% (post-halving)

• Previous annual issuance: 1.68% (pre-halving)

• Supply held by long-term holders (>1 year): 68.2% of circulating supply

• Supply on exchanges: 10.7% (declining trend)

• Illiquid supply (not moved in >2 years): 42.3%

These metrics show Bitcoin's supply is becoming increasingly constrained, which historically supports price appreciation.

What I'm doing now

Just like last week, I'm not trying to scalp this chop. The continued exchange outflows, healthy network growth, and cooling sentiment all support my view that this is a mid-cycle consolidation before the next leg up.

I'm using this quiet period to build positions at key support levels. The $80K-$82K zone remains my primary target for adding to my position.

Remember that patience pays during these consolidation phases. Bitcoin's current technical and on-chain structure looks remarkably healthy - we just need to let the market work through this mid-cycle pause.

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