#077 Why Smart Money Isn't Trading This Bitcoin Chop

Bitcoin continues to move sideways around $84,000. This is when most traders get itchy and make bad moves.

During flat markets, I like to zoom out and check the big picture. The on-chain data still looks strong even if price isn't moving much.

Let's look at the charts. High-timeframe only as I don't care about daily noise.

Bitcoin consolidation after correction

Bitcoin sits at $84,158 after dropping 23% from its all-time high of $109,114. Price has been stuck between $80,000-$87,000 for about a month.

Trading volume is down to $11.38B in the last 24 hours. Low volume often comes before a big move. Watch the key support levels at $80k, $78k, and the must-hold $76k.

Long-term vs short-term holder behavior

Here's where it gets good. Long-Term Holder SOPR is 1.97, which means old-timers are taking profits. However this number is going down This creates a price ceiling.

The Short-Term Holder SOPR is below 1.0. This is THE key level to watch. Above 1.0 means more upside. Below 1.0 means more selling.

Wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 139 days (the "smart money") are mostly holding firm. These steady hands give us a solid price floor.

Market structure is balanced

Price sits above both the 20-day and 50-day SMAs with a "golden cross" that tends to signal upward moves.

RSI sits in the middle at 50-55. The MACD shows a fresh bullish cross with a rising histogram. The Stochastic also shows a new bullish cross in the mid-range.

The Bollinger Bands are getting tighter. This often means a big move is coming. The upper band around $88-90k will be our next hurdle if we push higher.

Derivatives market setup

The futures market is perfectly balanced with longs at 50.26% and shorts at 49.74%. Funding rates are mild at 0.01% to 0.02% across exchanges.

Open interest sits at $99.4B - big but not at bubble levels. Liquidations dropped by 34.26% in the last day, showing lower volatility.

The liquidation map shows more shorts that would get squeezed below current price than longs above it. This creates a bullish tilt. These squeeze points often act like magnets for price.

Market sentiment metrics

The Fear and Greed Index shows "Greed" (around 55-65). This means people are happy but not crazy with joy. When it hits above 80, that's when tops often form. Below 20 is usually a great time to buy.

Social media buzz is positive but not manic. We're not seeing the kind of hype that comes at market tops.

Pro traders and analysts seem cautiously upbeat rather than wildly bullish. This matches what our hard data shows.

The Puell Multiple sits in the middle, showing miners are doing fine - not forced to sell but also not making wild profits that would lead to dumping.

Network health and accumulation trends

Daily transactions (321,230) are down 5% but still healthy. Active addresses are growing at a steady, not crazy pace - a sign of real use, not just hype.

The wallet size data tells an interesting story:

• Small fish (wallets with <10 BTC) are buying more

• Whales (wallets with 100+ BTC) are mostly sitting tight

When retail buys while big players hold, we usually see steady upward moves rather than sharp swings.

What I'm watching

1. Short-term holder SOPR at the 1.0 level - the best signal for what's next

2. Exchange flows to spot big money moves

3. Price breaks above $90k or below $76k

4. Liquidation points that could trigger squeezes

5. Puell Multiple for shifts toward extreme zones

In choppy markets like this, patience beats trading. Buy at support or just hold tight.

When we put all these clues together, the narrative is is clear: Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle pause with a slight bullish tilt. We don't see the extreme signs that mark major tops or bottoms.

The lack of market mania, balanced futures market, and steady network growth all suggest we have more room to run. This setup has led to more upside in the past, though not as explosive as early bull runs.

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