📊 The Road to $180k

🎯 TLDR: OEI at 46, BTC at $90k → $130k (Dec) → $155k (Feb) → $180k+ (May '25)

The current market structure is fascinating. After breaking above $70k, Bitcoin showed us exactly what I anticipated in my July analysis Bitcoin to 145k in 2025. The direction was spot on, while my timing was off by a few months.

Projected Price Targets and Timeline

Let's look at how Bitcoin behaved in previous cycles when the Onchain Edge Index was where we are now (~46):

2017 Bull Run

• Started at $1,985

• Took 154 days to reach peak of $19,039

• Broke down in three waves:

  • First 28 days: +82%

  • Next 51 days: +124%

  • Final 75 days: +198%

2021 Bull Run

• Started at $11,486

• Took 181 days to reach peak of $69,291

• Similar three-wave pattern:

  • First 32 days: +45%

  • Next 58 days: +86%

  • Final 91 days: +157%

Why This Matters

We're currently sitting at $91k with an index of 46.65 - remarkably similar to where both previous bull runs started (index ~46). By averaging these two cycles, we can make educated projections:

Expected Timeline

1. First Wave (33 days)

   • Target: Index 60

   • Expected: $120k-140k

   • Why: Previous cycles showed 45-82% gains in this phase

2. Second Wave (+54 days)

   • Target: Index 75

   • Expected: $150k-165k

   • Why: Historical gains of 86-124% from starting point

3. Final Wave (+86 days)

   • Target: Index 85-88

   • Expected: $170k-180k+

   • Why: Previous cycles peaked with 157-198% total gains

Key Differences This Time

What makes this cycle unique:

• Starting from a much higher base ($87k vs $11k in 2021)

• ETF involvement (didn't exist in previous cycles)

• Post-halving momentum ahead

• More mature market (might mean steadier rises)

• Pro Crypto US government

Important Caveats

The further out we project, the more variables come into play. While I'm confident in the general direction, timing becomes increasingly difficult to predict beyond the first phase. Expect 30% crashes along the way - that's just market noise and shouldn't affect your long-term strategy if you're positioned correctly.

I'm working on releasing my exit strategy calculator soon, which will help navigate these moves more precisely. Check out my last newsletter (profit taking guide) for more details on this upcoming tool.

Here in Switzerland, the market sentiment reminds me of late 2020 - a lot of PTSD but strong fundamentals. Just like I called the move from $28k, these projections are based on clear market structures and on-chain metrics.

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